Think Titanic and Iceberg. We all know who wins, the Titanic’s ‘unsinkable’ billing notwithstanding.
Erin O’Toole’s ship slammed into the Iceberg of public opinion sometime in late September 2019. Since then, every move the new Conservative Leader made ripped new and bigger holes in the ship’s hull.
Today, the good ship O’Toole is sinking and sinking fast.
This is a problem – a big problem – but one that’s almost completely self-inflicted.
Refusing to honour leadership campaign promises alienated one segment of the Party’s base. Then O’Toole angered (and continues to anger) social conservatives – approximately 40% of the Party’s traditional hardcore supporters.
O’Toole’s ham-fisted approach to removing Derek Sloan from caucus is the latest boneheaded move that alienated his own supporters while failing to court the centre-left voters he desperately needs to win an election.
When the Liberal Party leader and current Prime Minister congratulates Erin O’Toole on your decision to boot a member of your caucus, surely you must realize you’re on the wrong road.
There were a hundred better ways to accomplish removing Sloan from caucus, none of which relied upon the Conservative Party’s love affair with ‘Gotcha!” style politics. That asinine love affair must end if the party ever hopes to gain support from centrist voters.
Backtracking after the fact only made O’Toole look more foolish in the eyes of all Canadians.
Getting to Know Erin O’Toole
In the heady days following his victory in the Conservative Party leadership race, only 31% of Canadians held an unfavourable view of the man.
Then Erin O’Toole embarked on a nationwide ‘get to know me’ campaign to introduce himself to Canadian voters.
Five months later, 47% of Canadians hold an unfavourable view of the Conservative Party Leader, meaning O’Toole’s ‘get to know me’ campaign is an unmitigated disaster.
The negative trend for O’Toole’s unfavourable rating says his odds of becoming Prime Minister are only marginally better than those of Green Party Leader Annamie Paul.
Even NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s chances of becoming Prime Minister are better that O’Toole’s today.
If his unfavourable trend continues, Erin O’Toole will overtake Jagmeet Singh as the most unpopular federal party leader by the end of January 2021.
A Dire Prediction
Under Erin O’Toole’s leadership, the Conservative Party could lose upwards of 20 of its 45 seats in Ontario (35) and Quebec (10) in the next federal election.
For O’Toole to stand any chance of winning this spring’s election, he must haul his personal Titanic off the iceberg, repair the massive holes he ripped in its hull and find a way to positively frame himself in the minds of the average Canadian voter.
So far, his attempts at this are a total and abject failure.
Granted, framing him positively in the minds of voters was never an easy task but, to his credit, O’Toole started out strong. He made solid moves to frame himself instead of allowing the Liberal Party to frame him, unlike his predecessor.
Then he started ‘making his mark’ on the Party by issuing statements mocked by the media and ridiculed in Liberal fundraising letters.
The O’Toole Dilemma
In a nutshell, Erin O’Toole’s dilemma is two-fold.
First, mainstream media outlets refuse to cover him, and he’s alienated non-traditional media (for reasons nobody but O’Toole understands), guaranteeing less than stellar coverage by those outlets.
Second, only 31% of Canadians ‘strongly disapprove’ of Justin Trudeau – just one percent higher than the percentage of voters who would vote Conservative if the election were held today.
That means the only people who ‘strongly disapprove’ of Trudeau are Conservative Party voters.
O’Toole cannot win an election with the support of only 30% of Canadians, no positive media coverage and his alienation of those outlets politically inclined to agree with him.
He must expand the Big Blue Tent to win an election. Instead, he’s been shrinking the tent in his zeal to court centre-left voters.
Erin O’Toole must figure out who he is, what he stands for and share those answers with Canadians honestly and credibly.
This is no small order for a career politician and make no mistake, Erin O’Toole is a career politician.
Conservative Party Support Falls Nationwide
The only provinces the Conservative Party holds a commanding lead in voter intention are Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
He’s losing by 5 points in British Columbia, 13 points in Ontario, 18 points in Quebec and 17 points in Atlantic Canada.
O’Toole and his Conservative Party are losing the gender war as well.
While the Conservatives lead in all male age demographics, women universally dislike the party and, presumably, its leader.
Conservative voter intentions of women by age bracket:
- 18-34: 17%
- 35-54: 18%
- 55+ : 29%
These numbers show Erin O’Toole’s ‘get to know me’ campaign is a colossal failure with women.
These numbers also show there is no path to victory for Erin O’Toole and the Conservative Party if an election were today.
The bigger problem is, barring a miracle, these numbers are not going to improve between now and the spring election we all expect Trudeau to call.
Is There a Solution?
While I don’t all have the answers on how to fix this problem for the Conservatives, I know Erin O’Toole’s current path all but guarantees a humiliating defeat for the Party at the polls.
His reliance on ‘Gotcha!’ style politics turns off voters across the political spectrum.
His insistence on alienating his Party’s base through broken promises and stupid decisions mean 10% or more of traditional Conservative voters could sit out the next federal election.
His refusal to hire communications professionals and listen to their sage advice means Erin O’Toole, like Andrew Scheer before him, is surrounded by Party ‘Yes’ men and women who do whatever the leader says instead of the job they were supposedly hired for: building a successful communications strategy.
O’Toole cannot win if he stays on his current path. That’s obvious to everyone, apparently, but Erin O’Toole and the Conservative Party.
The question before us today is really quite simple.
Will the numbers released by Angus Reid today open O’Toole’s eyes or will they cause him to double-down on his failed strategy?
The future of Canada will be determined by the Erin O’Toole’s answer to that simple question.
Gad, last election the Sheep were Scheered, and now we have a strange ‘toole’ as leader… What next??
Conartists just don’t get it. They had a chance with Leslyn Lewis but no, they had to choose one more middle age white guy. They refuse to acknowledge reality of Kanuk politics.
There’s no way a guy ignored by the tax=funded media who doesn’t even have hair can compete with female and gay male voters who’re in love with the dreamy and lovely-locked corrupt clown prince Justinian.
I didn’t really know much about O’Toole, other than seeing and hearing the usual crap that politicians spew when they’re trying to win something. I was glad that he won the leadership race over Lewis and Mackay, even though I didn’t vote for any of those three, and I was hoping to be pleasantly surprised but instead I’m unpleasantly extremely disappointed. What he did to Sloan, whom I do support, tells me all I need to know about what kind of person he is. I think I’m done with the CPC and the tool, and it’s highly unlikely I’ll renew my membership. I’ll likely turn my attention to the PPC and I wish Derek Sloan would do the same.
Canada has never had a genuine federal (small-c) conservative party and at this rate it never will. I allowed my CPC membership to lapse and will join Maxime Bernier’s REAL conservative movement. In the nomination process I voted for Derek Sloan and seconded Leslyn Lewis. The USA is not the only country infested by Deep Swamp vermin, aka career politicians.
Chris, you have zeroed in on the gender problem but, what is your suggested solution ?
I didn’t zero in on anything, Lee, I merely pointed out what the data showed. 🙂
But to answer your question, if only in part, the majority women are not currently attracted to the conservative movement in Canada. This tells me the Conservative Party has a serious communications problem – one I’ve pointed out repeatedly in general – but specifically as it relates to women.
If the Conservative Party wants to attract female voters it must drop it’s asinine ‘Gotcha!’ politics. Men play these stupid games, and women don’t. This style of political communication is deeply unattractive – especially to women – so female voters who may otherwise be inclined to support conservative policies are turned off.
Conservatives must communicate in ways that resonate with female voters specifically. This is a lesson the Conservative Party under both Andrew Scheer and Erin O’Toole refuses to learn and these poll results are the natural outflow of that failure.
Does that answer your question, Lee?
I’ve heard it said that addicts must hit “rock bottom” before their habits and behaviour change, I think the same can be said for the Canadian electorate. I don’t have much faith in Erin O’toole but, for several reasons some of which are illustrated in your article, I don’t think that any other Conservative leadership candidate would be doing much better.
With the exception of Sloan they all wanted to be all things to all people and as a result they are nothing to anybody. I hate to say it but we need at least 4 more years of Trudeau.
If, by then, we still have fair elections, Canadians may finally see the destructive Liberal policies for what they are, if not, we will be further down the road to some form of western separation – either way I’ll be happy.
Well said, David. Thank you.
Death knell when they canned Derek. Maxim is not going to win but neither is the tool. At least Bernier is a conservative.
somehow every-time I look at him I see Carl Anderson’s “Henry” cartoon character from the 50’s and 60’s.
Doesn’t appeal to me and subconscientiously this similarity probably hits other people’s neurons too in a negative way, although many younger voters are not into that memory lane.
Charlie Brown would likely do better in the polls.
You are right Chris that the party is going to struggle until they get into the 21st century and find a suitable articulate female contender with upfront stated principles and no hidden agendas.
He will lose the vote and we will get an NDP government, Singh appears to be doing an admirable job, keeping his head down and coming up at opportune time with appealing statements.
I voted for Leslie, new blood and attitude that the party needs. Our local party organizers dont appear organized we cam in second to the greens in provincial.
Throwing Sloan under the bus was a very bad move. He was my second choice.
To those mentioning the PPC .
Can they be considered a real party .
They still have not had a policy convention .
This is an excellent point. As it stands, Maxime Bernier defines what his party stands for, not the membership.
While this is true of all parties to a varying degree, at least those other parties offer the pretence that their policies are decided upon by the membership via the policy convention mechanism. PPC does not so for me, at least today, they are not a legitimate alternative.
I have asked the PPC when they plan to host a policy convention and look forward to hearing from them on that issue.
You’re right Christopher, and I currently don’t see any way out. Honestly, since he turfed Sloan, I have been waiting for the next call asking for money, to give them an earful of my disgust! Until we get a Con-servative party that truly represents me/us, we are lost. As you said, the bought and paid for regular media will not cover him, and they have deliberately alienated the Rebel. I don’t know if they’ve pissed off True North yet, but there are a lot of us out here that support the “alternative” conservative media. Until they get a leader who is a true conservative, and one that seeks support from outfits like the Rebel, they have lost me, and a whole bunch of true blue conservatives as well. Since Trudeau shut down Parliament on what I consider a ruse and an excuse, they have been silent on the gun issue, the reset issue, the budget issue Ha, the free spending, and green agenda, carbon taxes, just to name a few. Now they are using the RCMP to harass the Rebel…Canada is truly lost, we are no longer a free country, and they don’t seem to care, they are just along for the grave train ride. So yeah, I’m truly pissed, and I’ve been around since before the Reform party days.
interesting article this a.m. from CTV related to this, and about some of us and our concerns, last paragraph sums it up well… O’Toole may end up looking bad to the membership if he doesn’t listen up.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/after-sloan-s-ouster-other-conservative-factions-wonder-what-s-next-for-them-1.5285537
Erin O`Potato Head is a globalist.
Maxi-pad Bernier. is a globalist.
There is no way to vote ourselves out of this pending dystopia …
I have to say that I agree with the comments posted today. The conservative party is heading for disaster just like the Social credit in BC. As I have commented before, electing a Red Tory for conservatives is not a good idea. I see another Liberal government coming up. I for one. am totally fed up, with the east and their holier than though attitude. A new party is in the making, they call themselves the Maverick party, western party for western people. It is time to loose the east and start governing the west with western ideals. Time to grow a pair and tell the east to take a hike. As of today the Maverick Party has 7 EDAs in the west. That alone should say how fed up we are.