On October 30, 2020, the Conservative Party sent out an email crowing (and rightly so) about their best fundraising quarter in Party history outside of an election year.

From July 1 thru September 30th, the Conservative Party raised $5,659,091.83 from 39,451 individual donors. The Conservative Party also out-fundraised the Liberals in quarters one and two.

While this is an admirable feat (and without taking anything away from that accomplishment) it doesn’t account for the Leadership Contest which concluded in August, crowning Erin O’Toole as the Party’s new leader.

The Green Party had their best fundraising quarter in its history outside an election year too, and for the very same reason. They concluded their year-long Leadership Contest on October 3rd by crowning Toronto lawyer Annamie Paul as their new leader.

Leadership contests, it would appear, had a significant impact on both the CPC and Green party fundraising efforts.

What I find FAR more interesting is the Liberal Party’s fundraising numbers.

The Liberal Party raised just $3,109,362.42 from 32,781 individual donors, its worst 3rd quarter fundraising total in almost a decade.

In the first three quarters of 2020, the Liberal Party raised $8.6 million. Compare that to the Conservative Party, which raised $13 million in that same period.

What could this mean for the Liberal Party?

Sure, COVID and the fear of it is still here (a dumpster fire the Liberals continue to stoke) but the COVID excuse doesn’t fly in the face of the Conservative Party’s results. They’ve never done better outside an election campaign.

Could it be the shine is finally coming off Justin Trudeau, even for the most faithful Liberal Party supporters?

These numbers reflect voter support prior to his October antics in trying to force a federal pandemic election but after his prorogation of Parliament – an act that thoroughly annoyed opposition parties but may have annoyed many Liberal Party supporters as well.

I look forward to the 4th quarter fundraising numbers to see if this downward trend continues for the Liberal Party.

If it does, Justin Trudeau may want to force an election sooner rather than later, for the more he delays the inevitable early election Trudeau wants, he waits the more of his core support bleeds away to other parties.

The upside for the Conservative Party is that the longer Trudeau waits, the more opportunities Erin O’Toole has to earn the trust of Canadians.

We do indeed live in interesting times.